Predictions for 2010:Now that we are off and running in the new year, and since it has been quite a while since I've updated this blog - that I'd start with my predictions for major things this year.  I usually limit these to technology and devices, but this year I decided to go all out - and include Politics, Social and Financial trends.  Have a look - I'd be interersted in your views on these items.


Hot technologies:

  • LEDs everywhere - finally they get low enough in cost to make sense in high-end apps
  • SSDs - next design iteration finally gets it right. OS support for TRIM increases perf.
  • Android-based handhelds - generic OS finally gets good enough
  • Apple Tablet - Industrial Design sells; Apple is the 'Ultimate Marketing Machine'
  • Silicon Carbide goes main-stream to meet electric car requirements; slow growth
  • 4G actually starts to take-off and make sense as a data-offload for cellular network
  • Network infrastructure upgrade for video - core and edge need 10x capacity growth
  • Windows 7 - performance pays; get rid of sluggish software; takes advantage of SSDs
  • AJAX applications continue to impress - creates alternative UI for applications


Disappointing Technologies:

  • Solar - slow market, low energy prices continue, will take a long time to make a dent
  • Wind - good technology, takes a long time and a lot of money to make a difference


Devices:

  • Connectivity in home appliances finally makes sense, e.g.:
    • Alarm clocks that show the weather and first appointments (Chumby)
    • Picture frames that always have latest home picture files
    • Energy monitoring systems that track home energy usage
    • Wireless connectivity for E-Books makes them very successful
  • Automotive electronics:
    • Weather maps in cars with reasonable geographic precision
    • 3D sensors for back-up and blind-spot detection
    • IR Imagers for safer night-vision - some with head's-up displays
    • Mobile hot-spot for Wi-Max and WAN phone service


Economic Environment:

  • Interest rate rise just after election season - the only time the stock market won't count
  • VC Industry stays in the doldrums, still too many firms for the market
  • Semiconductor industry recovers, but continues to consolidate - like the airline industry
  • On-line vs. brick & mortar stores - symbiotic existence continues


Experiments:

  • 3D displays - first generation won't go anywhere but will get a LOT of attention
  • 3D sensors - impressive technology, all depends on a hit game or two to drive it
  • Android wall-powered devices - new software platform becomes default embedded OS
  • Electronic noise continues - like Twitter, not real useful
  • Facebook continues to be the alternative web-mail interface for the teenage generation


Social:

  • Diet-awareness in general - if you measure it, people will (finally) pay attention (good news)
  • Continued ethnic shift in the south-western states - Mexico continues to come to the US
  • The US continues to have slow economic growth due to de-leveraging of credit


Political:

  • Centering of Obama administration, hopefully no knee-jerk corrections
  • Search for leadership in the GOP; The party of 'No' needs some answers.